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What Do The Polls Really Tell Us About the Governor’s Race In Wisconsin?

October 21, 2014 Leave a comment

I was delighted to participate in a forum sponsored by the CapTimes addressing what the polls can tell us about the Wisconsin gubernatorial race. Polling expert and all around good guy Charles Franklin (@pollsandvotes in the Twittersphere), political scientist and gov’s race aggregated poll modeler Brad Jones, and the well-known Democratic pollster Paul Maslin were also on the panel. It was a fun hour. One fun exchange between Paul Maslin and me is here. More videos to come. Moreover, we should all be on the lookout for more interesting forums like this one that the CapTimes will be sponsoring in the future.

In addition to the polls, I talked a bit about history and how hard it has been to unseat governors seeking re-election across our great land. I also shared a bit of research from Diana Mutz on the third-person effect and Danny Hayes on how the media cover campaigns when the polls are close and when they are not.

The great work Charles has done on the Marquette Law Poll and that Brad has done modeling the available surveys suggests a very close race here in the Badger State. Stories on the event are here and here.

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